Russia’s wartime parliamentary election set to lock in United Russia’s grip on the Duma

Russia’s parliamentary election begins Friday, with three days of voting expected to preserve United Russia’s dominance of the State Duma. The first wartime balloting for the lower chamber since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine comes as the Kremlin works to lock in political control and mobilize public support for the war.

United Russia, which controls over two-thirds of the 450 seats in the Duma, is poised to retain its hold alongside a few parties that vote in sync with President Vladimir Putin. Authorities have tightened control over the process, stifling even slight signs of dissent.

In July, the Central Election Commission cleared 11 parties for the ballot, including Yabloko, the only registered party to openly criticize the war. Weeks later, the Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the ballot, acting on an appeal from the nationalist Motherland party that likened Yabloko’s anti-war stance to seeking the violation of Russia’s territorial integrity.

“The risks that the campaign would turn into a struggle for and against peace , that is, a dispute about the war , were quite high, and this clearly was not part of the plan,” said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Other anti-war figures have faced prosecution or exile. Maxim Kruglov, a deputy chairman of Yabloko and former Moscow city council member, was convicted in June of spreading false information about the Russian army and sentenced to seven years in prison. A court in the Pskov region convicted Yabloko member Lev Shlosberg of speaking out against the war last month and sentenced him to over 11 years. Liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin, who tried to challenge Putin in the 2024 presidential election, left Russia last month after being designated as a “foreign agent,” barred from seeking office and fined for displaying “extremist symbols.”

The election comes as Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have brought the war home for millions of Russians, damaging oil refineries, logistical facilities and warehouses belonging to online retailers Wildberries and Ozon. Hundreds of thousands of individual sellers lost merchandise.

Strikes on oil refineries sparked a severe fuel crisis that peaked in June, eased for weeks, then returned in August. The attacks exacerbated an economy already in stagnation as the initial boost from military spending has waned. The government raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the growing budget deficit under control.

The independent Levada Center showed Putin’s approval rating at 76% in August, down from 87% in September 2025. Even some senior members of Russia’s elite have spoken out.

Andrei Klepach, chief economist of the state VEB.RF bank, warned of possible internal turmoil.

“We won’t win the competition in this war of attrition,” Klepach said at a seminar. “Our costs are mounting. I’m almost sure that we will come to face a social crisis.”

Klepach was dismissed the day after his comments were published.

Putin acknowledged the strikes inflicted significant damage but insisted the economy can weather them. By striking such infrastructure, he said Ukraine opened a “Pandora’s box,” inviting massive retaliation. Russia intensified attacks on Kyiv and other cities with missiles and jet-powered drones and dramatically stepped up its barrage on Odesa and other Black Sea ports, disrupting Ukrainian grain exports.

Fears have mounted that the Kremlin is mulling a massive mobilization. A partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists in 2022 prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers, but military experts warned the flow has ebbed while massive losses continue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly claims the Kremlin is considering a postelection mobilization, which Putin dismisses as “nonsense.”

At a Sept. 5 Kremlin meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and a subsequent call with President Donald Trump, Putin said Russia holds the upper hand on the battlefield, signaling he will keep his maximalist demands for a peace deal.

Some Russian reports indicate the Kremlin has slightly lowered its target for United Russia but expects it to retain full control.

“United Russia may be allowed to slip a little … to bring its actual sort of declared results more in line with probably its real results,” said analyst Mark Galeotti, who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, adding the Kremlin will ensure it “is still absolutely dominant within the Duma.”

One purpose of the elections is showing they are “legitimating rituals to give the impression that mass consensus is behind the Kremlin,” Galeotti said.

Other members of the “systemic opposition” , the Communist Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party and A Just Russia Party, which all follow Putin’s course and strongly support the war , are expected to retain their presence in the Duma.

Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd., said that while Ukraine’s attacks have affected public morale, there is no immediate threat to the Kremlin’s political domination.

“There has been a ‘rally around the flag’ anyway since the start of conflict and the opinion polls consistently show the very high level of support,” Weafer said.

While the results are predetermined, Weafer said, “the public narrative and particularly the turnout” is what matters to the Kremlin to claim broad public support.

In an address before the vote, Putin framed the election as a show of national unity behind the war effort.

“Your choice and resolve will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our fighters, that we are a united people, bound by shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland,” Putin said.