IMF raises global economic growth forecast at Bangkok meeting

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its global economic projection to 3.1 percent on Tuesday in Bangkok. The small revision comes during the joint annual meetings of the agency and the World Bank. Officials warned that overall expansion remains sluggish.

The agency had previously projected 3.0 percent expansion in July. World economic activity grew at a 3.5 percent pace in 2025.

The IMF Economic Outlook expects crude prices to jump nearly 41 percent this year. Oil will average 96 dollars per barrel, the agency said. Higher energy costs will push international inflation to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 4.1 percent last year.

Artificial intelligence demand is balancing the damage caused by high oil and gas prices. The gains from computer technology remain uneven. The United States and China generate over three-quarters of net imports for artificial intelligence equipment.

“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the research director for the organization, told reporters in Bangkok.

Expansion is growing more concentrated. Thirty-two nations now drive 95 percent of international gains, the document stated. That concentration compares with 54 nations reported in April.

“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength,” it says.

Employment disruptions are taking center stage during the discussions in Bangkok. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described the technology shift during an event Monday as “a slow moving tsunami, but tsunami nonetheless.”

“The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% , jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact,” she said.

Last week, Georgieva urged governments to repair national budgets. Mounting debt levels threaten overall financial stability. Tenreyro said that danger increases during periods of elevated borrowing rates.

The report shows advanced economies expanding by 2.1 percent this year, up from 2.0 percent in 2025. That pace will drop to 1.9 percent next year. United States growth will hold at 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2027.

The projections assume energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March. The estimates also assume technology equipment purchases will moderate.

Developing markets face pressure from fuel expenses linked to the war in Iran. Emerging markets will see rates drop to 3.7 percent this year from 4.5 percent in 2025. The agency expects those markets to rebound to 4.4 percent next year.

Economies in the Middle East and Central Asia face contractions this year. Those regions are projected to expand by 6.3 percent in 2027. Regional numbers show varied trends:

• The 21 euro currency nations expect 1.1 percent gains this year and 1.2 percent in 2027.
• China expects 4.5 percent expansion this year, matching its target, down from 5 percent in 2025.
• India will lead major nations at 7 percent, down from 7.7 percent last year.

The International Monetary Fund includes 191 member nations. It provides financial oversight and loans to promote international economic stability. The institution also works to lower poverty worldwide.

Leaders gathered in Bangkok will evaluate international markets through the rest of the week. Finance ministers and central bank governors plan to review strategies for long-term growth.