Some households face higher heating costs this winter, EIA says

Heating bills could spike by 20 percent or more across the U.S. this coming winter. A new federal report shows lower fuel prices will spare other residences from sharp increases. Energy prices and local weather will determine final bills.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Winter Fuels Outlook this week. The document projects household spending and overall energy consumption. It analyzes the four most common heating fuels across the country.

Agency analysts project that residences heating with natural gas or propane will see lower energy expenditures this winter. Lower fuel costs drive that projected drop, according to the report. Households using electricity or heating oil face higher bills.

Between November and March, natural gas customers could spend roughly 9 percent less than last year. That is the largest dip across any fuel type. Propane users may see a decline of around 3 percent.

Homes relying on electricity may see costs rise by about 4 percent this winter. Heating oil users make up about 3 percent of U.S. households. The EIA projects heating oil bills will jump about 21 percent over last year.

Regional temperatures could alter those average changes, according to the agency. Forecasters expect similar or warmer temperatures across the South, Midwest and Northeast. The EIA says the West could experience a colder winter.

In the West, natural gas bills could rise by about 7 percent over last year. Western electric bills could climb by 9 percent. Expenditure changes vary sharply across other parts of the U.S.:

• South: natural gas down 15 percent, electricity up 3 percent, propane flat at 0 percent
• Midwest: natural gas down 10 percent, electricity up 3 percent, propane down 4 percent
• Northeast: natural gas down 14 percent, electricity down 3 percent, propane down 15 percent

The EIA said this year’s El Niño weather pattern could create large variations from its forecast. Forecasters said last month there is a 75 percent chance of an event exceeding records dating to 1950. The weather pattern usually peaks between October and December.

Strong El Niño cycles bring warm, dry conditions north and to the Ohio Valley. The southern half of the country usually receives more rain and snow. High-tide flooding may worsen along the West Coast, according to the National Weather Service.

Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan spoke about trade winds in a September media briefing. Ehsan said this year’s atmospheric pattern looks similar to 1997. That year produced one of the strongest El Niño systems on record.

The 1997 storm pattern caused ice storms in the Northeast and floods in California. Florida saw deadly tornadoes. Nationwide heating costs fell 10 percent during that winter.

A recent report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association addressed current household budgets. U.S. families are projected to spend more than $1,000 on home heating this winter.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration collects, analyzes and publishes independent energy data for the federal government. The agency prepares seasonal energy outlooks to help consumers track expected utility spending.

Winter conditions continue to develop across the U.S.