Alaska governor’s race moves to toss up as Democrats gain
The Cook Political Report shifted Alaska’s gubernatorial race to a toss-up on Thursday after previously rating it “likely Republican.” The move reflects concern among Republicans that the state’s ranked choice voting system could erode the party’s advantages in the open seat race to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
Jessica Taylor, the handicapper’s senate and governors editor, cited new AARP polling in reporting the change. The poll found Democratic former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins with 40 percent of respondents’ backing, while his closest challenger, conservative businesswoman Bernadette Wilson (R), had 20 percent.
Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson polled 14 percent and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) polled 7 percent.
Jessica Taylor wrote that Alaska’s ranked choice voting leaves the GOP vulnerable, because the party fears voters will fail to rank gubernatorial candidates beyond their first pick. The ranking system diminishes the advantages Republicans would have, given that there are two on the ballot.
“The AARP poll backs up that fear, finding that a quarter of GOP voters , who overwhelmingly backed Trump by a 41-point margin , simply aren’t ranking anyone in the contest, which is helping Kreiss-Tomkins and hurting Wilson, who was the top Republican vote-getter in the primary,” she wrote.
Wilson, though she won votes in the primary, has called on Bronson and Treg Taylor to step out of the race and show her support, according to the editor.
“Further voter education from Republicans on the RCV system could help tighten this contest, so we are only moving it into Toss Up for now given the high volatility of a race that’s difficult to game out,” Jessica Taylor concluded. “But Kreiss-Tomkins is winning independent voters by 34 points, also helping him solidify his frontrunner status.”
The handicapper had previously considered the race as “likely Republican,” shifting away from solidly red due to the “ranked-choice complexities.”
Democrat Tom Begich dropped out of the race in August and backed Kreiss-Tomkins. Both advanced to the general election in the open primary.
