NOAA forecasts warmer fall for the north, wetter south

The northern United States is favored to see warmer-than-normal temperatures this fall, while southern states are more likely to see above-average rainfall through the end of the year, according to an updated seasonal outlook released Thursday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The pattern reflects a building El Niño expected to reach peak strength.

The states with the highest probability of above-average warmth between October and December are those furthest north, along with California and Nevada.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana are not leaning above-average this fall. Those states have equal chances of a warm, cool or normal season, with the forecast less clear.

The precipitation outlook is nearly the reverse. A band stretching from Southern California to the mid-Atlantic is leaning toward above-average rain, with Florida and its neighbors showing the highest probability.

The Pacific Northwest and a sliver of the Great Lakes region are more likely to be dry.

The split is consistent with a typical El Niño year, which tends to divide the country between wetter conditions to the south and drier conditions to the north. The exact dividing line shifts year to year depending on the position of the jet stream.

National forecasters said last week the chance of a very strong or “super” El Niño had grown to over 90%. There is a 75% chance the event will end up being the strongest El Niño since 1950.